GLOBAL SHOE PRODUCTION EXCEEDS 20 BILLION PAIRS
15
China debate
China is the clear leader, with a production output that
Apiccaps puts at almost 12.6 billion pairs in 2010. Figures
for India, Brazil, Vietnam, Pakistan and Mexico come
from governments and industry associations in each of
those countries, which doesn’t mean they are all
scientifically verifiable, free from double-counting and so
on, but they are in the public domain. It is the China
figure, the key to the 20 billion-pair total, that is the
hardest to verify.
According to the China Leather Industry Association
(CLIA), domestic consumption of footwear in China
(mostly produced locally) is running at 1.9 billion pairs a
year.
World Footwear
published an analysis earlier this
year (July-August 2011, page 34) showing that this
number seems far too low and that the real figure is
probably already in excess of three billion pairs a year.
In its Yearbook, Apiccaps puts China’s domestic shoe
consumption at 2.6 billion pairs. In terms of domestic
consumption at least, the Apiccaps number appears, if
anything, too low.
CLIA has published figures that suggest exports of just
over 1 billion pairs of leather shoes in 2010. We have
seen no corresponding figure for non-leather shoes but
Apiccaps insists that leather shoes account for 10% of
exports. That would put total shoe exports at 10 billion
pairs. With its estimate of domestic consumption of 2.6
billion, this gives a total output of 12.6 billion pairs.
Apiccaps has told us: “To estimate the production we
based [our figures] on the equation Production =
Consumption + Trade balance. We estimated consump-
tion and production referring to information from local
trade associations and incorporated it into our models.”
This is at the core of the debate. If we know the
figures for exports of leather shoes (which CLIA has
published) and we know that leather shoes account for
10% of total footwear exports, we can work out an
overall figure for the shoes of all types that China
exports. Not all of the shoes Chinese consumers buy are
made in China, but it is fair to assume that most are. We
know, once again from CLIA, that China imported 15.6
million pairs of leather shoes in 2010, probably towards
the exclusive end of the market. This is a valuable niche
(the Chinese appetite for luxury goods is extremely
healthy), but in terms of volume, it’s a drop in the
ocean, around 0.5% of total shoe consumption there.
Some shoes made from synthetic material will also be
coming into China from other countries, but again the
numbers will be comparatively small.
For this reason, the Apiccaps theory seems fair; the
only question-mark hanging over it is the 10% figure
for leather footwear’s share of overall shoe exports. We
have seen a statement confirming that leather shoes
represent 10% of all footwear exports, but for Vietnam
rather than China. All Apiccaps has told us is that the
figure comes from its industry contacts in China. If it’s
The report suggests China made 12.6 billion
pairs in 2010, but central to this is an
assumption that the country exported 10 billion
pairs of non-leather shoes that year.
CREDIT: CHINA INTERNATIONAL FOOTWEAR FAIR