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WORLD FOOTWEAR | JULY/AUGUST 2012
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th
21.4% in the 15 years from 1994 to 2009
but is only predicted to increase by
17.4% in the 15 years from 2009 to 2024.
Although a steady growth in GDP is
envisaged in the years up to 2024, it is
likely to be at a lower level than up to
2009. The estimated impact on
footwear production is shown in
Table
6
, with output in 2024 predicted to be
close to 30 billion pairs.
It is estimated that production in
China will approach 15 billion pairs and
that India, Brazil and Vietnam will all
be over one billion with Nigeria not far
behind, with its mix of local traditional
sandal production and more structured
footwear. It is believed production in
the US will decline even further to 16
million (235 million in 1987) but that in
Europe there could be a slight recovery
from 2014 onwards. The expectations
of major importing areas are given in
Table 7
.
It is estimated that imports as a
percentage of production will fall, with
the main footwear producing countries
such as China, India, Brazil, Vietnam
and Nigeria retaining more production
for local consumption. Europe will
continue to be the main sink for
imports whilst the US, the Rest of Asia
and the Rest of Africa will soak up most
of the remaining volume. In terms of
exports, China will stay far ahead of the
pack
(Table 8)
although one could
expect India to achieve better results.
The following two tables
(Tables 9
and 10)
cover expectations of
consumption. Figures from China
indicate that the size of its domestic
market
might
have
been
underestimated.
By 2024 it is estimated that, even
allowing for the large number of
chappals produced and purchased in
India, Chinese consumption shouldl be
catching up.
Pairs/capita
consumption
is
expected to increase substantially to
3.7 by 2024. The most dramatic change
will be in China where it is predicted to
double to 3.6. The figure of 8.7 for the
US may not be achievable or
sustainable; all the others seem
reasonable.
Nevertheless, the world footwear
market is expected to continue growing
through to 2024, driven by an increase
in population and GDP. No doubt the
world economic picture will influence
the forecasts, too, but as an industry,
we should remain optimistic as
Table 11
indicates.
Whatever the reality proves to be,
World Footwear
and its associated
website www.footwearbiz.com will
continue to keep you informed about
developments in the global market.
Table 11
IMAGE: SAKS FIFTH AVENUE